Ehsan Taghvaei, a senior analyst on Russian, Eurasian, and international affairs, discussed the dimensions of this operation and its impact on the future trajectory of the Ukraine war in an interview with the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations website. He believes that the future of negotiations to end the war in Ukraine will depend on multiple factors, including “the level and intensity of Russia’s response to Operation Cobweb, the U.S. decision on continued support for Ukraine, and unforeseen future developments.”

Diplomatic Efforts Under U.S. Pressure

Taghvaei first outlined the general landscape of the Ukraine war, noting that “before Operation Cobweb, the U.S., under Donald Trump’s leadership, had reduced intelligence and military support for Ukraine in an attempt to push the warring parties toward negotiations. This strategy, designed to secure a diplomatic achievement for Trump, faced serious challenges. Russia, having seized parts of Ukrainian territory, had no intention of withdrawing from occupied regions, while Ukraine, due to heavy human and material losses, considered Moscow’s terms unacceptable. This stalemate made achieving peace in the short term difficult, but Washington’s pressure had made negotiations a plausible option.”

This Eurasian affairs expert added: “The reduction in U.S. intelligence assistance, which had peaked under Joe Biden, was part of Trump’s effort to create balance in negotiations.”

However, Taghvaei believes that *”Operation Cobweb, which targeted five Russian airbases using 117 drones, disrupted this process. Although attacks on some bases were unsuccessful, the destruction of approximately 14 strategic aircraft, including Tu-22M3 bombers, inflicted $2 to $7 billion in losses on the Russian Air Force.”*

According to the analyst, “the success or failure of future negotiations will determine the intensity of the conflict. Failed talks could lead to escalated Russian attacks, while continued negotiations might reduce tensions.”

Operation Cobweb: An Intelligence Blow and Military Humiliation for Russia

Operation Cobweb, which resulted in the destruction of Russian strategic bombers at military bases, was one of the most complex intelligence and military operations of the Ukraine war.

Taghvaei argues: “This operation resulted from extensive intelligence cooperation between Ukraine and Western countries, particularly NATO members. Ukraine’s SBU intelligence service initially claimed over 40 aircraft were destroyed, but satellite imagery and expert assessments limited the damage to around 14 aircraft. Nevertheless, this operation, which required deep intelligence infiltration and meticulous planning, demonstrated Ukraine and its allies’ capability to carry out surprise attacks.”

The senior international affairs analyst emphasized: *”The destruction of the Tu-22 bombers—some of the world’s most advanced strategic aircraft capable of carrying nuclear and conventional weapons—dealt a severe blow to Russia’s military prestige. Russia, which had maintained military and intelligence superiority as a pillar of its great-power status since the Soviet collapse, was put in a position of weakness by this operation.”*

According to the Eurasian affairs expert, “this military humiliation, especially in international relations, has profound consequences for Moscow, as prestige is crucial for major powers like Russia.”

However, he warned: “Russia’s response could lead to intensified attacks against Ukraine, particularly if Moscow feels its negotiating position has weakened. Russia’s national defense doctrine, which considers nuclear retaliation in response to aerial threats, raises the risk of escalating tensions. However, Moscow is expected to limit itself to conventional strikes and dual-use (civilian-military) infrastructure targets.”

Istanbul Talks and the Strategic Rationality of Moscow and Kyiv

Taghvaei points to the continuation of Ukraine-Russia negotiations in Istanbul just 24 hours after Operation Cobweb, interpreting the talks, which led to a prisoner exchange agreement, as a sign of both sides’ rationality in maintaining diplomatic channels. According to the Eurasian affairs analyst, “the timing of these talks had been predetermined, and Operation Cobweb, despite its impact, did not disrupt them. This indicates that Ukraine and its supporters, including European intelligence services, designed the operation in a way that would not harm negotiations.”

Taghvaei believes: “By executing this operation, conducted before the talks with the support of major European powers, Ukraine sought to strengthen its negotiating position. In the history of international relations, nations often bolster their bargaining power with military gains ahead of talks. Operation Cobweb followed this logic, but the risk of intelligence leaks forced Ukraine to carry it out at the scheduled time.”

According to him, “delaying the operation could have led to its failure. The temporary ceasefire for the prearranged prisoner exchange showed that the operation did not affect the negotiation process but gave Ukraine a temporary relative advantage at the negotiating table.”

Geopolitical Consequences and Future Challenges

Operation Cobweb had wide-ranging geopolitical repercussions. Taghvaei noted: *”The destruction of the Tu-22 bombers—a key component of Russia’s strategic arsenal—affected Moscow’s security doctrine and its relations with NATO and the U.S. While this loss is recoverable, it weakened Russia’s military capability and eroded confidence in its technological and intelligence superiority.”*

According to the analyst, “Operation Cobweb tarnished Russia’s prestige vis-à-vis NATO and heightened tensions between Moscow and Europe, particularly Britain, which has been accused of supporting the operation.”

The Eurasian affairs expert warned: “Russia’s security doctrine could lead to broader attacks against Ukraine or sabotage operations in Europe. However, Russia’s war-ravaged economy may struggle to quickly replace the destroyed bombers, whose production is costly, placing additional strain on Moscow’s war machine. Conversely, the operation boosted Ukrainian morale, increasing Russian caution in deploying its airpower. However, this will not pose a major obstacle to Russian advances, as time on the battlefield favors Moscow.”

Citing the fluidity of international politics, the analyst tied the future of negotiations to multiple factors, including “Russia’s response, the U.S. decision on supporting Ukraine, and unforeseen future developments,” stating: “The gap between the declared and actual policies of Trump’s foreign policy team has complicated peace efforts. The post-operation phone call between Russian and U.S. foreign ministers, which addressed allegations of Ukrainian war crimes, reflected Washington’s attempt to offer Russia superficial concessions.”

However, Taghvaei stressed that “Operation Cobweb is only a short-term card for Ukraine. Russia will reassert its position in the medium term with heavier blows.”