The Ukrainian election is debatable from several perspectives. Since the independence of Ukraine from the Soviet Union, its internal and external debates have been somehow intertwined. As in the previous elections, there has always been a kind of alignment between the Russia-oriented and the West-oriented.

Of course, even among the West-oriented, there are divisions so that some are close to the European Union and some others prefer friendships and close ties with the United States and structures such as NATO. These indicate that there has always been a kind of continuity between the internal and external issues of Kiev.

The current presidential elections that are being held after passing through the previous round in 2014, which led to certain events such as the separation of the Crimean Peninsula, outbreak of clashes and emergence of separatist groups in the Donbass region, and leaving behind a critical period in the country, enjoys great importance and people are looking to create a new course in the politics of the country.

In the past, the biggest competition was between pro-Russians and the West’s admirers. But in this election, despite the nomination of a candidate by the Russians, in fact, the main rivalry was between three other candidates – Vladimir Zelensky, Petro Poroshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko, with Zelensky and Poroshenko entering the second round with a majority vote.

Zelensky’s success to make it into the second round had messages, including the general dissatisfaction of the people with Poroshenko’s performance as President of Ukraine. Because he failed to cope with the economic situation and to fight corruption, political and economic affairs so that the oligarchs are still in control of an important part of the Ukrainian economy. During his presidency, Poroshenko failed to provide a solution to the Donbass and the Crimea regions, which changed the attitude of the people and made some of his admirers to turn away.

It should be kept in mind that Poroshenko took over with direct support of the United States. If he fails to win the runoff election it would be a big defeat for the US. It is also important to note that the United States did not provide Poroshenko with adequate support during his presidential term.

Another point is that Zelensky, as a West-oriented person, is more inclined to establish closer ties with European countries, while Poroshenko seeks to expand relations with the United States.

The political future of Ukraine will depend on the people’s support for one of these two candidates. Evidence suggests that the Russians will not vote for Poroshenko and that Zelensky will be a better choice out of the two hopefuls. On the other hand, given the controversy between Tymoshenko and Poroshenko, the former is more likely to ask supporters to vote for Zelensky, under which condition Poroshenko will be less likely to win the runoff.

It should be noted that during the past years, political sovereignty in Ukraine has been determined by interference and lobbying, and it is likely that, contrary to predictions, consultation and compromise between political leaders in Ukraine would lead to a different occurrence in the result of the second round of the elections.

Given the fact that both the candidates in the runoff are Western-minded, the future of Ukraine’s foreign relations with Russia and the improvement of relations with Moscow will not change significantly. Of course, Zelensky, unlike Poroshenko has a more lenient stance towards Moscow, due to a greater tendency towards Europe because his European supporters do not want tension with Russia. But if Poroshenko wins it will increase the likelihood of new tensions in relations between Ukraine and Russia.