Reviewing Effects of Upcoming Elections on Turkey’s Foreign Policy

2023/04/25 | interview, Politics, top news

Strategic Council Online - Interview: An analyst of Turkey affairs, saying that the victory of each of the candidates in the upcoming Turkish elections brings opportunities and threats in the field of foreign relations, emphasized: If the Nation Alliance wins the elections in Turkey, naturally Ankara’s regional ambitions will decrease, and this issue will leave its impacts on Iran-Turkey relations as well.

In an interview with the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations website, Rahman Ghahremanpour referred to the start of the competition of presidential election candidates in Turkey on May 24. He stated: Four political alliances: “The people’s Alliance,” “Republican People’s Party” (CHP), “Nation Alliance,” and “ATA Alliance,” will compete in the election, and the people of that country are going to elect from among the four candidates, including “Rejab Tayyip Erdoğan,” the nominee of the People’s Alliance, “Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’, the nominee of the Nation Alliance, “Muharram Ince” the nominee of the Homeland Party, and “Sinan Ogan,” the candidate of the ATA Alliance.

The expert on Turkey affairs, reminding that in this period, parliamentary elections will be held simultaneously with the presidential elections, continued: In the parliamentary elections, the Nation Alliance, led by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, will have a relatively better position compared to the previous elections. Of course, the Justice and Development Party alone will get the most votes, but it will have fewer seats than the 2018 elections.

He said the votes would be counted according to the alliance due to forming a coalition in this election period. On the one hand, we see the republican partnership, in which the parties “People’s Republic,” “Good,” “(DEVA), the Democracy and Progress Party” and “Party of Greens and the Left Future” and the “Felicity Party (Saadet) are present, and on the other hand, the Justice and Development Party has formed a coalition with the National Movement Party and several other small parties.

Ghahremanpour emphasized: If we consider the parties alone, the Justice and Development Party will still have the most seats in the parliament, but if we think of the coalition, the Republican alliance will gain more seats. This means that even if Erdogan wins the presidential election, he will face a parliament in which his opponents hold a majority.

Saying that based on the polls so far, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the candidate of the Nation Alliance, and Recep Tayyip Erdogan will have a close and shoulder-to-shoulder competition in the presidential elections, he explained the foreign policy positions of the leading candidates in the presidential election competition and added: Erdogan after the coalition with the “National Movement” Party has always tried to adopt a nationalist approach in the region; the topic of militarizing Turkey’s foreign policy, presence in Syria and playing a role in the Mediterranean, presence in the Caucasus, Iraq, and other regions are among the procedures that we have witnessed in this period.

While explaining the volume and history of bilateral relations between Iran and Turkey, the analyst of Turkey’s affairs continued: Erdogan’s regional policy has also caused friction with Iran and will continue to do so because Erdogan’s Turkey is seeking to increase its regional role. Erdogan has usually tried not to get into tension with Iran, and for a period, he had good cooperation with Iran despite the sanctions. The practical independence of Erdogan’s Turkey against the US and Europe has sometimes benefited Iran and harmed Iran in other areas. It has helped the interests of Iran; because it did not comply with the Western sanctions against Iran and caused Iran losses; because it has caused regional ambitions.

Ghahremanpour pointed to the foreign and regional policy positions of the alliance of the party led by “Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu,” and explained: This alliance does not have a single point of view on Iran due to the presence of six parties. For example, the People’s Republic Party belongs to the Alevis of Turkey, who are closer to the Shiites. At the same time, the parties of DEVA and Future do not have many religious tendencies, and they are also Sunnis in terms of religion. The party led by Davutoğlu also has directions close to traditional Islam. Therefore, theoretical unity does not prevail in this spectrum, but the average and totality of the alliance seek to reduce Turkey’s regional adventures.

He added: This alliance seeks to improve and strengthen Turkey’s relations with the West and that the country refrains from interfering in regional conflicts and even the Ukraine case. Therefore, the Republican alliance is more likely to follow Atatürk’s famous will of “Peace at home; peace abroad” while Erdogan pursues regional adventurism and increases the weight and importance of Turkey in the region.

Referring to the importance of the results of the presidential elections in this period for some countries in the region, especially the Republic of Azerbaijan, Ghahremanpour stated: Erdogan is known in the Republic of Azerbaijan as the leading supporter of Baku from Ankara; he also has warm personal and business relations with Ilham Aliyev. Besides, Baku did not have this support during the first Karabakh war in the early 1990s. In this situation, many in the Republic of Azerbaijan are worried about the victory of the opponents of the current Turkish government in the elections. However, it may not fundamentally change the attention and priorities of Turkey; at least temporarily, Ankara will not follow regional developments as in the past.

Stating that each of those approaches brings opportunities and threats for Iran, the expert on Turkey affairs said: If the Nation Alliance wins the elections in Turkey, Turkey’s regional presence will naturally decrease. This issue will have effects on Iran-Turkey relations. We will also witness developments regarding the role and company in Syria, Iraq, and the Caucasus. Another problem is that if this alliance wins the election, the relations between Iran and Turkey will be affected by that country’s relations with the West.

Ghahremanpour pointed out that Erdogan had adopted an independent approach to foreign policy in the past 20 years. However, the Nation Alliance does not have such an approach and may limit part of its bilateral relations with Iran under the pressure of the West. Turkey’s relations with the US are experiencing one of the worst relations in the current situation and will not worsen. If Erdogan wins, the US will be forced to continue working with it, although the US and Europe are now seeking to support his rival.

He continued: With the victory of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, relations between Turkey and the West will improve, which may have adverse effects on Iran, and they will be less resistant to Western pressures against Iran.

AKP | Caucasus | Erdogan | Iran-Turkey relations | Iraq | Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu | Nation Alliance | Rahman Ghahreman | Syria | Turkey | Turkey's foreign policy | Turkish presidential elections

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