From Thucydides Trap to the Churchill Trap: The Paths Ahead for China and the U.S.
Nouzad Shafiei, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, stated: “History has always witnessed the rise and fall of powers; a process that is repeating itself today in the form of the China-U.S. competition.” According to this university professor, “The United States is concerned about China’s challenge and will strive to prevent Beijing from becoming the world’s preeminent power.”

Referring to the concept of the “Thucydides Trap,” this analyst notes that “this theory, derived from the experience of ancient Greek wars, explains how a dominant power, fearing the rise of an emerging rival, is driven toward military conflict.” He therefore warns that “it is possible that Washington may consider military actions to contain China; a scenario that, while not certain, cannot be ignored.”

This expert on Southeast Asian affairs believes that “the current equations are not limited to the military domain and involve a range of diplomatic, economic, and security tools.” Proposing two main scenarios, he describes the paths ahead for the two powers as follows: “First, the scenario of direct conflict, or the Thucydides Trap, in which uncontrollable competition leads to hot war; second, the ‘Churchill Trap’ scenario, which has its roots in the post-World War II policy of containing communism and could lead to the formation of a new cold war between Washington and Beijing.”

According to this university professor, “If the second scenario materializes, U.S.-China hostility will primarily be pursued in the realms of propaganda, economic pressures, and political containment, while both sides avoid direct military conflict.” He emphasizes that “the level of tension and how it is managed depends on the skill of the two countries’ leadership in management; because each of these paths will have profound consequences for the international order.”

China on the Verge of a Historic Turning Point: Wolf Warrior Diplomacy and Global Ambition
This expert on South Asian affairs believes that “given its massive population, economic capability, and civilizational background, China cannot avoid becoming a global power.” In the view of this analyst on South Asian affairs, “This process is not merely the desire of China’s leaders; rather, the country’s internal capacities drive it toward playing a larger role in the international system.”

The expert on Southeast Asian affairs notes that “the shift in Beijing’s approach is not merely propagandistic but reflects a change in the balance of power within the global system.” This analyst believes that “China is now an actor that plays a role not only in the military sphere but also in the economy, technology, and even cyberspace.” From Shafiei’s perspective, “the recent military parade is a sign of this very process, where China, by displaying its strategic capabilities, seeks to send a clear message to competitors that the era of unipolarity is ending and a multipolar order is taking shape.”

The expert on East Asian affairs continues: “At the trans-regional level, the closeness of China, Russia, and North Korea in opposition to the West is reminiscent of the Cold War era, but with more complex equations, because now the competition is not only military but also technological, economic, and even cyber. It seems that the Beijing parade is the beginning of an era in which the global balance of power will no longer remain as it was in the past.” This university professor concludes by emphasizing that “the future of the global order depends greatly on the nature of the interaction between China and the United States. If crisis management is handled wisely, the competition between the two powers will likely continue at a controlled level; otherwise, the world may enter a period of structural tensions whose consequences will spread beyond Asia to the entire international system.”