Barsam Mohammadi – Expert on Regional Affairs

Ansarullah forces’ recent powerful and lightning-fast operation on Yemen’s western coast, which is still ongoing, has in a short period marked one of the most decisive turning points in the Yemen war and developments in West Asia; a development that has progressed contrary to all Saudi, American, Western, and Zionist calculations.

During the recent extensive military operation, more than 2,600 square kilometers of sensitive areas of Taiz and Al Hudaydah governorates, including the cities of Hays, Al Khawkhah, Al Wazi’iyah, Mawza, and the Khalid bin Walid military base, have been liberated. With the entry of forces into the port city of “Al Mokha” and their deployment in the “Dhubab” area and the strategic island of “Mayyun” (Perim), the defense lines of the Saudi-led coalition forces and groups affiliated with Tariq Saleh have collapsed. This rapid field transformation has not only recorded the definitive end of the fragile 2022 ceasefire but has also brought Yemen’s military geography out of a state of stagnation and brought the structure of the battle into a phase that consolidates Sana’a’s sovereignty over vital chokepoints.

The Geopolitical Importance of Controlling Al Mokha and Mayyun Island

One of the surprises of Ansarullah Yemen’s recent operation is the liberation of Al Mokha and Mayyun Island. The port of Al Mokha is located at an approximate distance of 60 to 75 kilometers north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait; a strategic waterway with a width of 29 kilometers that serves as the gateway connecting the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Indian Ocean to the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean.

Control over Al Mokha, along with entry into Mayyun Island and consolidation of position near the Hanish and Zuqar islands, has transformed the nature of Ansarullah’s influence from a “deterrent power based on drones and long-range missiles” to “direct field control and presence” over shipping lines. The crescent-shaped island of Mayyun, which separates the eastern and western channels of Bab el-Mandeb from each other, provides Ansarullah with direct visual, radar, and artillery fire superiority without the need for complex weapons. This territorial deployment has realized the possibility of cutting the coalition’s supply arteries toward the south and imposing a complete siege on hostile movements along the entire coastal strip.

Failure of the Anti-Yemen Coalition’s Economic Strategies

Ansarullah Yemen’s successes and in fact conquests have so far had important strategic consequences; such that the economic implications of this victory have confronted security equations and global energy transmission with an immediate shock. Saudi Arabia, which following previous insecurities had transferred its oil exports through the east-west pipeline to the Yanbu port to become independent of the Strait of Hormuz, now sees its alternative route in the Red Sea as completely vulnerable with the expansion of Ansarullah’s sphere of influence.

Statistics indicate a sharp decline in Yanbu exports from 3.8 million barrels to about 1.5 million barrels per day and a reduction in Saudi Arabia’s total production to 6.2 million barrels. Simultaneously, the jump in Brent oil prices to above 100 to 110 dollars and a more than 50 percent decrease in ship traffic in the Suez Canal, with an average of 40.8 vessels per day, have revealed the depth of the international economy’s dependence on the security of this strip. This situation has placed an unprecedented lever of pressure in Sana’a’s hands to impose economic demands and lift the comprehensive siege on Yemen.

Strengthening the Position of the Axis of Resistance and the Lever for Containing the Israeli Regime

Beyond economic and energy consequences, at the regional level, Ansarullah’s new conquests directly serve the integrated strategy of the Axis of Resistance. With Sana’a’s control over the western coast and Bab el-Mandeb, a twin geostrategic lever has been formed alongside the Strait of Hormuz that secures control over the world’s most important trade and oil arteries in favor of the anti-hegemony front. This has plunged the Israeli regime’s security institutions into shock and fear; because the naval blockade of the port of Eilat (Umm al-Rashrash) has now transformed from a phase of intermittent disruption to complete territorial dominance and has brought the regime’s naval movements in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa to a deadlock.

The holding of emergency maneuvers by Tel Aviv with a multi-front battle scenario, Riyadh’s attempt to build consensus with countries such as Pakistan, which has so far been unsuccessful, and even Trump’s negative response to Riyadh’s request for serious entry into the conflict against Yemen, indicate the failure of Western-oriented security structures to contain the power arising from Yemen’s indigenous resistance. Experts acknowledge that Ansarullah, as an independent actor relying on internal defense capability and possessing strategic will, has changed the rules of the game.

Reproduction of the Regional Balance of Power

This great field victory has fundamentally rearranged the balance of power in the Arabian Peninsula and the West Asian region. The aggressor coalition and the government based in Aden, having lost the logistical lines of the western coast, have lost their offensive capability and have even found themselves in a position of absolute weakness on the eastern fronts, such as Marib and Al Jawf.

The increase in Ansarullah’s bargaining power has not only consolidated this movement’s position as the de facto and unchallenged ruler of Yemen in any international diplomatic or political process, but has also extended the depth of the Axis of Resistance’s geopolitical influence from the Persian Gulf to Bab el-Mandeb and the Mediterranean Sea. This achievement demonstrates that the balance of power is no longer determined by extra-regional fleets or petrodollars, but rather the control of field geography and the will to resist that draws the boundaries of the new geopolitics.

Ansarullah’s recent conquests in Al Mokha and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, beyond a simple military repositioning, have created a massive earthquake in the region’s geopolitics. The consolidation of the Yemenis’ physical presence at the southern gateway of the Red Sea, simultaneous with the intensification of parallel crises, has doomed any security design in the region without Sana’a’s participation and consent to failure. The confluence of this development with the authority of the Axis of Resistance in West Asia has brought the security margin of the Israeli regime and its Western-Arab supporters to its lowest historical level, and its clear message is the irreversible change of the balance of power in favor of independent nations and the Axis of Resistance at the world’s most important transit chokepoints.