Seyed Reza Mirtaher – International Affairs Expert

In recent years, especially after Donald Trump assumed the presidency of the United States, the pace of militarization in East Asia, or the Asia-Pacific region, has accelerated. In this context, Japan, as a close ally of the US, has significantly increased its military budget.

Japan has also placed the execution of offensive military actions in East Asia on its agenda by revising its constitution. Furthermore, Ms. Sanae Takaichi, the new Prime Minister of Japan, has stated that a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan would pose a threat to Japan’s security and lead to Tokyo’s intervention, which has strongly provoked China’s reaction and led to a deterioration in bilateral relations.

Pressure to Change Stances Against China

In the meantime, Trump is strongly seeking to compel countries in this region, including South Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand—which are traditional allies of Washington—to increase their military budgets or, particularly given the disputes some of these countries like Vietnam or the Philippines have with Beijing regarding the South China Sea, to adopt a hostile stance towards China.

Under such circumstances, the trend of militarization and escalating tensions in East Asia has been increasing in recent years. Certainly, the continuation of this trend, especially the potential intensification of tensions between China and Taiwan, and indirectly between China and the United States, could provoke a very extensive war in the Asia-Pacific region.

Increasing Importance of Japan and Australia for America

In the past two years, Japan and Australia have signed very important military agreements with the United States and made multi-billion-dollar purchases from Washington. Among these are Australia’s actions to purchase submarines, nuclear propulsion-related items, a large number of helicopters, and other equipment such as tanks, armored vehicles, and F-35 fighter jets. Japan has also placed on its agenda the purchase of air defense systems, long-range missile systems, and various types of equipment, especially F-35 fighter jets.

Naturally, the position of these two countries is considered very important in America’s security strategy. Japan and Australia are members of the Quad. This quadrilateral security pact was signed during Joe Biden’s presidency by the US, Australia, Japan, and India.

Although, given the tensions that have arisen between India and the US in the past year, India’s role in this regard has naturally diminished, the role of Australia and Japan has become significantly prominent, to the extent that it is believed these two countries are currently developing tactics, strategies, and purchasing equipment specifically aimed at confronting or potentially waging war against China. This trend indicates the likelihood of confrontation with China in the Asia-Pacific arena in the coming years.

Furthermore, evidence shows that the East Asia region, or the Asia-Pacific region, is moving towards intensified tensions, with no sign of de-escalation in sight.

Moreover, Washington’s provocative actions against China, especially the sale of military weapons to Taiwan and visits by senior American officials to that country, contradict the agreement signed in the early 1970s between the Nixon administration and the then-Chinese government.

Conclusion

In summary, it must be said that America has largely distanced itself from the One-China policy and is moving towards greater military and political support for Taiwan. Certainly, for China, the continuation of this situation—meaning Taiwan’s separation—is intolerable. Therefore, it is possible that at some point, China will pursue the issue of Taiwan’s reincorporation into the mainland, either through peaceful political means or by force.

Of course, in such a situation, the likelihood of military confrontation between the United States and China would be very high. In that case, a large-scale war would break out in East Asia, and, naturally, America’s regional allies, including Japan and Australia, would be drawn into it.

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