Iran-China Strategic Partnership An Alarm For Washingon/ China Is The Core Security Challenge To U.S.

2020/08/22 | interview, Politics, top news

Strategic Council Online – The Vice President of the Washington based Middle East Institute (MEI), Gerald M. Feierstein says that growth of Chinese influence in the Persian Gulf is more a recognition of China’s growing economic and commercial power than it is a reflection of declining U.S. influence.

In an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations (SCFR), he added: Furthermore, the establishment of Chinese-Iranian strategic cooperation is seen in Washington as a direct challenge to U.S. policy on Iran and its dominant position in the Persian Gulf region.

Q: Trump administration has shifted its focus from the Persian Gulf to the Asia Pacific in order to maximize pressure on China; has this approach led to the growth of Chinese influence in the Persian Gulf. Do you think this shift enabled the United States to contain China or did it backfire on Trump administration in the Persian Gulf?

The so-called “Pivot to Asia” was a policy initially launched by the Obama administration and continued by the Trump administration as part of its identification of “great power competition” as the core U.S. security challenge today. Despite the interest in focusing on Asia and the Pacific as the centrepiece of the U.S. defence and security emphasis, however, there has been little practical shift away from the Persian Gulf region. The U.S. continues to maintain a robust presence there.  Thus, the growth of Chinese influence in the Persian Gulf is more a recognition of China’s growing economic and commercial power than it is a reflection of declining U.S. influence.

How this approach can bring Iran closer to China or as some call it “strategic shift toward the East”?

The Chinese-Iranian relationship revolves primarily around Iran’s role as a primary supplier of energy to China and its strategic importance in China’s Belt and Round Initiative (BRI) as well as China’s economic investment in Iran; but as China has grown more confident in its global standing, it has also begun to adopt more forward-leaning political and security positions.  Chinese diplomatic initiatives with both Iran and the (P)GCC states have underlined China’s willingness to challenge the U.S. and play a positive part in regional conflict reduction.  Furthermore, the establishment of Chinese-Iranian strategic cooperation is seen in Washington as a direct challenge to U.S. policy on Iran and its dominant position in the Persian Gulf region.

As coronavirus pandemic has taken so many lives in some of the most liberalized countries like the U.S., Brazil and Britain, how this situation could weaken the globalization trend and strengthening of nationalism?

A move away from globalization was already in progress at the time that the pandemic hit. Donald Trump’s “America First” policy was only the most visible of the nationalist push in many countries around the world.  When the pandemic hit, concerns over-dependence on global supply chains for critical items, especially health-related, accelerated the demand for greater indigenous production. The anticipation that economic recovery is going to be long and difficult is also going to increase the demand for reliance on local products to generate employment.

How some of the countries that are believed to be U.S. enemies like Russia, China and North Korea, see the November US election and what they will do to affect the polls?

The U.S. intelligence community has already reported on evidence that Russia is, once again, seeking to influence the U.S. elections in favor of Donald Trump. While China’s views were more complicated, there is also evidence that the Chinese would favour a Biden administration and are making their views known, although not in a covert manner the Russians are doing.  North Korean views are unknown.

How do you see the Saudi-Qatar future relations?

Eventually, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are likely to find ways to reduce tensions. There was some movement in that direction at the end of 2019.  The real source of tension in the (P)GCC is between the UAE and Qatar given the stronger opposition in Abu Dhabi to political Islam, which they believe Qatar is supporting.

Even in many Persian Gulf Arab states that are primarily Saudi ally’s fear of growing power of Riyadh and some use the Iran power as a counter-balance to contain Saudi influence in their domestic politics. How the “Growth of Saudi power threatens the region and even the Persian Gulf Arab States?

There is an old saying here in North America: “Pity poor Mexico.  So far from God, so close to the United States.”  There is always a fear among smaller states that their larger neighbors will victimize them.  The Persian Gulf region is no different.  Small states in the region: Yemen, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, even the UAE, will always be somewhat concerned that their large Saudi neighbour will overwhelm them.  For that reason, intra-regional organizations like the (P)GCC are important as a way of ensuring that the small states retain their voice in managing their own and the region’s policies.

What are the possible security outcomes of building nuclear sites in Saudi Arabia? Do you think that Saudis can reach a balancing point with Iran?

The concern over the potential for a nuclear arms race in the Persian Gulf area was one of the issues driving the negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program.  The Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, has raised the possibility of Saudi Arabia pursuing a nuclear weapons capability if Iran develops one. That would be an extremely dangerous development for regional security and stability and underlines the importance of resolving Saudi-Iranian differences through dialogue.

Due to the unstable situation in Yemen, is Yemen conflict going to continue? What are the requirements or preconditions for Yemen Crisis to reach a stable situation?

Regrettably, there is no indication yet that the parties to the Yemen civil war are ready to reach a political resolution of the conflict. To reach that point, it is essential for both sides to acknowledge that they cannot win a military victory and, therefore, that they need to return to the negotiating table. Even with a resolution of the Houthi-Government of Yemen conflict, however, the situation in Yemen will remain highly unstable.  True peace and security in the country will require a prolonged period of internal cooperation, economic recovery, and institutional capacity building.

(Gerald Michael Feierstein was the United States Ambassador to Yemen under President Barack Obama from September 2010 to October 2013. Since December 2013, Feierstein has served as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs in the Department of State). 

Asia | Asia-Pacific region | Belt and Road Initiative | Corona | Economic influence | Gerald M. Feierstein | Iran | Joe Biden | Muslim Brotherhood | Nuclear talks | political Islam | Presidential elections | Yemen crisis

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