Having pointed out the holding of Paris International Conference on Libya, emphasis on holding the elections and also withdrawal of Russian and Turkish forces from the country, Sabri Anooshe in an interview with the site of Strategic Council on Foreign Relations reminded that:” the Conference was held by the President of the French Republic in a situation that the country is on the brink of an election and Mr. Macron attempts to solidify  French interests in Libya and thus increase his chance of success in the upcoming election.

Interferences of Foreign Players in Libya  

Having reminded that in the European Union there is a competition between France and Italy to have influence, authority and share in Libya, he added:” Libya used to be a colony of Italy. The country still has interests in gas and oil fields of Libya. Italy had good relations with Ghaddafi and was criticizing NATO for unseating him. As Libyan oil is light and thus valuable for Europe and even the U.S. and her gas is also needed by Europe, the countries will not quit interfering in Libya.

Having said that due to disputes with Morocco, the export of Algeria’s gas to Spain has become time taking, the analyst of international affairs said” If the foreign players come to realize that peace should be established in Libya, this will happen. As every single group of internal players is supported by a number of regional players and international powers, therefore the internal players alone can not reach such an agreement.

Anooshe explained the aspects of Libyan importance for the U.S. and Europe, particularly in security, economic, immigration and organized crimes.  He stated that Italy, France and Germany play a role in Libya, but he attached the main role for the UK and the U.S. Anooshe continued:” Libyan hard currency reserves have been blocked in British and Maltese banks. According to some reports, as much as $ 100 billion of Libyan hard currency reserves are frozen in the banks of the two countries, without even a single dollar of interests given to Libya! The U.S. also hopes to exploit Libyan gas and coasts, thus attempts to assume the first role in the country. Anyway, Libya has strategic and geo-strategic sensitive status.

Having said the Libya’s neighbors, particularly Algeria and Tunisia support peace and stability in the country, the former Iranian diplomat added:” due to eleven years of war in Libya, the two countries have lost in economic and security fields. UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt support Haftar, but Qatar and Turkey axis are supporters of Tripoli.

Various Ambiguities over Holding Next Month Elections

He pointed out the emphasis of Paris International Conference on the necessity of holding the elections during December 2021 and added:” There are various ambiguities about holding the elections. It seems that internal groups in Libya are determined to hold it but there is no consensus among foreign players. There are 11 candidates for presidency at the moment, among them which one could be useful to serve more for the interests of France, Italy, the U.S., Turkey, Saudi Arabia and even Egypt?

Concerning the emphasis of the International Conference on the withdrawal of foreign forces particularly Turkish and Russian ones from the country, Anooshe said:” France plays some roles in this connection, the country indeed, supports Haftar and Eastern Libya Fraction”.

Having pointed out the Russia’s support to the results of Paris International Conference and also the ambiguous and critical position of Turkey on the withdrawal of her forces from Libya, the international analyst continued:” Turkish presence in Libya has hegemonic and prestigious, economic, security and strategic aspects for them. Ankara is looking for the revival of her historic clout in the North of Africa. Moreover, Turkey has some competitors for gas and oil of East Mediterranean and is alone among them. The only country that signed contract with Turkey is Tripoli government, as the supporter of Turkish interests in East Mediterranean.

East Mediterranean, Focal Point of Crisis in Future

Having said that it seems the East Mediterranean will become the focal point of crisis in future, he added:” Greece, Cyprus, the Zionist regime and Egypt have the same mind against Turkey, and Turkey is looking for an alliance no matter how weak it is. Now, Turkey sells drone to Tripoli which proved to be very decisive in war against Haftar. Moreover, Turkey charges Tripoli for stationing her forces there, which has benefits for military and economic costs of Turkey.

Russia & Turkey Positions on Their Exit from Libya           

In connection with Russia’s role in Libya, Anooshe said:” the country has strategic and geopolitical benefits for Russia. Putin invested on Haftar and makes effort to revive his position because of Haftar’s presence and to establish a military base in Libya. Now, Russia is also observing the issue of withdrawal of Turkish forces from Libya and can not withdraw his forces from the country without receiving reassurances on Turkish exit. All such issues will leave effect on the trend of elections in Libya”.

Having said that all parties involved have stressed that non-presence of foreign forces will guarantee healthy elections, he emphasized:” it must be asked that at present condition, who can guarantee healthy elections in Libya”.

The former Iranian diplomat to Tripoli pointed out to different scenarios raised on holding elections in due time in Libya and the importance of providing security to this field and added:” Some believe that Haftar may disorder the present situation with military measures. According to the reports of Libyan media, Haftar has accepted the withdrawal of 400 personnel of foreign forces from the country; but according to available data and information Russia has more than 2000 military forces in Libya. Moreover, the role of Chad forces and Darfur Sudanese forces should also be considered.

Anooshe stated:” as long as these forces do not withdraw from Libya, guaranteeing healthy elections is meaningless and it is not clear if the result of the elections opposes the interests of the military groups and also Haftar, how would they react”.