Dr. Ahmad Kazemi, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, emphasized that Baku’s predictable attack on Karabakh on 23 August 2023 not only is not the end of the crisis, but also the beginning of new crises in the Caucasus designed by interventionist players, and noted: the beginning of the process of the surrender of Karabakh in 2018 with the occurrence of the American Color Revolution in Armenia, simultaneously with the beginning of the de-resistance project of the Armenians of Karabakh through the removal of prominent political and military figures, the war project of 2020 and finally Pashinyan’s emphasis on the belonging of Karabakh to Baku in Prague in Mehr (September/October) 2022.

Saying that from Russia’s point of view, Pashinyan in Armenia is following the path of Zelensky in Ukraine, he continued: Of course, Moscow’s many mistakes in the Caucasus, which started a decade ago and intensified in the past three years, provide the necessary justification for the behavior of the Yerevan government. Moscow’s response to the change in Armenia’s positions, especially after the Ukraine war, has been emotional, unilateral, unbalanced, vengeful, and lacking in strategic components.

Kazemi pointed out: On the one hand, such wrong behaviors have strengthened the destructive Baku-Ankara brokerage on behalf of NATO with the centrality of London and the Zionist regime in the Caucasus, and on the other hand, it has changed the image of Russia from an ally to a traitor in the eyes of the Armenian public opinion. According to the approaches of Baku and Tbilisi, with the continuation of this process, we will see a severe weakening of Russia in the Caucasus and the Balkans.

The expert on the Caucasus affairs stresses that the Armenians of Karabakh have become victims of Pashinyan’s approach and Russia’s mistakes, and most Western countries have given up their historical rights and security in exchange for receiving special oil and gas concessions from Baku; Blinken’s phone call with Pashinyan and his concern about the rights and security of the Armenians of Karabakh and the emphasis on supporting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Armenia were due to Washington’s concern about the high possibility of forced displacement and ethnic cleansing in Karabakh by the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Kazemi stated that the US is well aware of the approaches of the Baku government against Armenians and other ethnic minorities and knows there is a possibility of a humanitarian disaster in Karabakh, and emphasized: However, this stance has more of a dramatic dimension. In the past nine months, when the Lachin Corridor was blocked, the Biden government did not take any serious action to change the behavior of Azerbaijan other than a diplomatic show position. This recent stance is aimed at maintaining the image of the human rights of the Democrats in the region.

While reminding that the Armenian lobby has more than 130 members in the US Congress, and one of the reasons for the White House’s dramatic stance is the Democrat’s need for their votes in the upcoming elections, he said: After the collapse of the Soviet Union, a solid anti-Russian atmosphere has been created in Armenia for the first time and the image of Russia as an ally has been lost in the eyes of the people of that country, and the United States is trying to make Russia look passive and useless by adopting such a position, while considering the Russians as the cause of the current situation, and pull the rug from that country’s foot in the region and provide a basis for strengthening its presence in Armenia.

The international law expert emphasizes that although with a slight difference, the US is associated with the geopolitical conspiracy of NATO’s Turani Corridor, which is being followed by its allies, the Zionist regime and Britain, with the brokerage of Baku and Ankara, added: Such positions are more for deviation of the public opinion of the region, especially Armenia, from the real approaches of the White House in the Caucasus. An approach in which the US sacrifices the rights and security of Armenians to Baku’s oil and gas and, in practice, supports the Republic of Azerbaijan. For this reason, in the last two meetings of the Security Council, its positions were limited to expressing concerns. At the same time, it had complete means of pressure and influence on Aliyev’s government.

Saying that due to the fear of the possible fall of Pashinyan’s government, Ankara and Baku agreed that the third Karabakh war should not continue for more than one day, Kazemi noted: With the blocking of the Lachin Corridor since nine months ago and the surrender of Karabakh, the 2020 Moscow agreement has practically collapsed. The possible fall of Pashinyan’s government can also be a null line on all the open and hidden agreements of the parties, so Baku and Ankara, as they tried for Pashinyan’s victory in the early parliamentary elections of May/June 2021, want to prevent his fall.

He stated that Baku’s objective is the forced relocation and complete ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Karabakh and said: It seems that Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan, like the liberated territories of 2020, will settle Takfiris, non-Shiites, Turkmen affiliated to Ankara and Zionists in the evacuated areas of Karabakh in the framework of the neo-Ottoman strategy of demographic changes in the region. This is a plan that Ankara previously implemented in parts of northern Syria and Kirkuk, Iraq.

The author of the book “Security in South Caucasus” said that the experience of the 2020 war showed that under the guise of freedom of land, the Zionist regime’s control plan is pursued in this region on a large scale; he pointed to the volume of arms purchases by Azerbaijan from the Israeli regime and explained: In the third war of Karabakh, most of the weapons were provided by the Zionist regime, this declining regime follows the strategy of turning the Republic of Azerbaijan into a “regional base of Zionism” and does not care about the territorial integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Muslims of that country.

Kazemi stated that with the emergence of false power in the Baku statesmen after the third Karabakh war, the anti-Shiite trend will intensify, and reminded: After the surrender of Karabakh, the plotters of the “Turani Corridor of NATO” hope to grant some economic incentives and pursue the replacement of Azeri energy infrastructures with Russia in Armenia, persuade Pashinyan to agree to the handover of the corridor, at least with the focus on the deployment of European observers instead of the Russian observers.

The expert on Caucasus affairs continued: Pashinyan’s resistance for more than two years against the transfer of the extra-territorial corridor shows that he knows very well that even if the corridor is under the rule of Yerevan, its formation in the future is the basis for the continuation of Baku’s territorial aspirations to Syunik with the claim of “easement” and the idea of establishing the territorial integrity of Armenia with 29,800 kilometers will fail.

According to him, considering the region’s situation after Karabakh’s surrender, Pashinyan’s possible retreat would blow his government.

Kazemi emphasized that from a historical point of view, considering the fundamental geopolitical threats, it should be carefully noted that the nature of this geopolitical sedition is the nature of historical impulses and developments, such as the separation of Bahrain from Iran, and added: Based on the consultations of the Tel Aviv and London regimes, the military plan of Baku and Ankara to carry out the “Turani Corridor of NATO” conspiracy will most likely be from “Jermuk” district of “Vayots Dzor” Province, in the north of Syunik Province, as well as Nakhchivan, where Erdogan visited on 23 August 2023, which is unacceptable.