Analysis of the Political Turmoil of the French Government

2024/12/24 | Note, Politics, top news

Strategic Council Online—Opinion: François Bayrou has embarked on a difficult mission from the center-right in France. He was appointed prime minister by President Emmanuel Macron less than 10 days after the fall of the government of Michel Barnier, a veteran French politician. Michel Barnier’s government collapsed after just three months following a vote of no confidence in the French National Assembly. The same problems that Michel Barnier faced in approving the 2025 budget await François Bayrou.

Morteza Maki – European Affairs Expert

 

Payrou is a well-known politician in France and the leader of the center-right Democratic Movement Party, which holds 36 of the 577 seats in the French parliament.

François Bayrou has good relations with the leaders of the center-left parties. He has run for president three times as a centrist. Bayrou came closer to victory in 2007 than ever when he came in third place with nearly 19 percent of the vote. He angered the eventual winner, Nicolas Sarkozy, by backing the Socialist Party candidate, Ségolène Royal. His support for Ségolène Royal and then François Hollande in 2012 has given the Socialists a certain confidence. François Bayrou sees his chances of success as low. Still, when the only way to survive a minority government is to build bridges between the left and the right, he has the advantage of having acceptable relations with both sides. Despite François Bayrou’s personality traits for talking to both right and left parties, the reaction of the various parties’ leaders to Bayrou’s prime minister election has left him, like Michel Barnier, in limbo. The far-right camp, led by the National Rally (RN), has announced that it does not intend to table an immediate motion of no confidence in parliament for the time being. Both Jourdan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, the leaders of the party, have stressed that François Bayrou should listen to the opposition on the budget.

On the other hand, Fabien Rousselle, the leader of the Communist Party, has announced that he will not take action against Bayrou as long as he does not pass laws without considering the opposition. However, the reaction of the French far left to the appointment was mixed; leaders of the France Independent Party have announced that they will seek the dismissal of the new prime minister. Marine Tondelli, the leader of the Green Party, has also said she will support a no-confidence motion if the party’s concerns on taxes and pensions are ignored.

Bayrou’s main task will be to pass a special law to adapt the 2024 budget, while a tougher battle is expected early next year to approve the 2025 budget. France’s debt is expected to exceed 3 trillion euros ($3.17 trillion) by 2025, with government debt at around 110 percent of gross domestic product. Michel Barnier has been seeking to reduce France’s budget deficit, which is expected to reach 6.1 percent of gross domestic product this year. Barnier wanted to raise taxes and cut spending by 60 billion euros in his budget proposal. Lawmakers opposed the move.

The makeup of François Bayrou’s government could determine the level of party support and the longevity of France’s fragile government. Bayrou is trying to form a government of center-left and center-right figures. It remains to be seen to what extent the center-left and right parties are willing to participate in François Bayrou’s government. Paying attention to the demands of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally Party will play a decisive role in the survival of Bayrou’s government. If Bayrou’ss government also falls, pressure on Macron to resign will increase.

The French president hopes that François Bayrou will be able to survive the no-confidence vote at least until early next summer when new parliamentary elections are likely to be held. According to the French constitution, the president cannot dissolve parliament and call new elections if early parliamentary elections are held. The critical and challenging political situation in France reflects the precarious position of French President Emmanuel Macron. He is under great pressure to resign, but so far, he has resisted this pressure.

Macron is trying to find a way out of this critical situation with the help of veteran politicians such as Michel Barnier and François Bayrou. Michel Barnier has failed to find a way out, and François Bayrou has also accepted a challenging mission. The roots of political instability in France go back to the widespread dissatisfaction of the people with Macron and the difficult situation of the French economy. France, along with Germany, is the driving force of Europe.

In both countries, the center-right and center-left parties have lost their traditional bases, and the far-right and left-wing parties are becoming the mainstays of the country’s political scene. Germany has early parliamentary elections on February 23, and in France, the early elections failed to create an opening for Macron. The center-right wing, on the other hand, is in a fragile state. This fragile situation in Germany and France, amid Trump’s return to the White House and the uncertain status of the Ukraine war, has had a negative impact on European activism in response to Trump’s policies and //how to end the war in Ukraine.

Emmanuel Macron | France | François Bayrou | Michel Barnier | Morteza Makki

https://scfr.ir/en/?p=310633

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