In a bold statement, European Council head António Costa declared that the European Union must ramp up its defense capabilities in the face of the United States potentially reducing its military presence in the region.

According to Reuters, Antonio Costa, head of the European Council, during his visit to the “Arsenal” weapons factory in Bulgaria, emphasized that Europe must produce its weapons, as Washington has threatened to reduce its military presence on the continent. He added, “We must produce more European weapons to become more autonomous.”

Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, also announced during the unveiling of the “European Defense White Paper” on March 19, 2025, in Brussels, that “the era of benefiting from peace has ended, and Europe must take on more defense responsibility.” These remarks come as the “European Rearmament Plan” has been unveiled, aiming to strengthen defense capabilities amid the transatlantic rift and concerns over declining U.S. support.

Past Failures and the Revival of European Defense Autonomy and Responsibility

Ali Rezvanpour, in an interview with the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations website, pointed to the failure of initiatives like “PESCO” during Donald Trump’s first term, stating that the idea of European defense autonomy and responsibility has been controversial since the early 2000s due to weak existing structures and reliance on U.S. military commitments. He added, “The lack of coordination and a strategic roadmap among member states has limited the efficiency of European defense institutions, and the continent’s defense posture remains dependent on U.S. forces and their nuclear weapons.”

According to Rezvanpour, Donald Trump’s unconventional approach in his second presidential term, particularly his closeness to Vladimir Putin, has eroded European leaders’ trust in U.S. defense commitments, especially France and Germany. This situation and internal EU divisions have fostered a will for “Europeanizing defense.” He stressed that concerns over Washington’s pivot toward Asia and European economic-political pressures have motivated the revival of defense autonomy and responsibility. Rezvanpour noted that the “European Defense White Paper” reflects Europe’s resolve to address past failures and move toward defense independence. He highlighted that increased investments and political consensus within the EU, compared to Trump’s first term, have laid the groundwork for greater seriousness toward this idea.

Strategic and Political Factors Strengthening Defense Autonomy and Responsibility

Citing Antonio Costa’s remarks, Rezvanpour stated that Washington’s focus on geopolitical shifts in Asia and the Pacific has forced Europe to reconsider its defense dependence. He added, “Costa emphasized that Washington has threatened to reduce its military presence in Europe, pushing the continent toward domestic arms production and military autonomy and responsibility.” According to the analyst, unveiling the “European Defense White Paper” and the “European Rearmament Plan” on March 19, 2025, is a response to the deepening transatlantic rift and declining U.S. defense support. Ursula von der Leyen also stressed the need for defense investments, declaring the “end of the peace era.”

The senior European affairs analyst explained that strategic factors, such as threats from Russia and China, economic factors, like job creation through defense industries, and political factors, including domestic pressures for independence from the U.S., have accelerated this trend. He added that, particularly under Trump’s view of the alliance as “obsolete,” NATO’s diminishing commitments have driven Europe toward strengthening independent defense structures. Rezvanpour emphasized that the €150 billion defense loan, to be distributed equitably among EU members, is a step toward addressing defense inequalities and enhancing military self-sufficiency.

Prospects for Operationalizing Defense Autonomy and Responsibility

Rezvanpour further stated that institutionalized reliance on NATO and the U.S. remains a significant obstacle to European defense autonomy and responsibility. He said, “Historical dependence on U.S. security guarantees has constrained the mindset of European leaders, preventing them from developing independent defense tools.” According to the analyst, Trump’s return has heightened concerns about European security, but a lasting shift in mindset in Brussels and Washington is essential.

He noted that initiatives like the European Defense Fund (2018–2021) and the allocation of €13 billion for industrial defense policy between 2021 and 2027 are steps toward operationalizing autonomy and responsibility. Rezvanpour identified internal challenges as serious hurdles, such as member state disagreements, lack of coordinated funding, and differing defense priorities. He also pointed to external obstacles, including U.S. pressure to maintain Europe’s NATO dependence and competition with emerging powers. He stressed that Emmanuel Macron’s remarks on “strategic autonomy and responsibility” and rising European military spending reflect a determination to build institutional structures. Rezvanpour added that the success of this process depends on political consensus, sustained investment, and member coordination, though the likelihood of forming an effective structure remains high given current geopolitical tensions.

Strategic Implications of Defense Autonomy on Security Order

The senior European affairs analyst, referencing Trump’s description of NATO as an “obsolete alliance,” stated that Europe’s defense autonomy and responsibility could alter the continent’s seven-decade-old security arrangements. He said, “A shift in transatlantic attitudes could make Europe a more capable ally for the U.S., but risks fracturing Western security order.” From his perspective, defense autonomy may weaken NATO’s role, but could complement it if Europe and the U.S. share security responsibilities.

He noted that Europe’s rising defense spending since 2016, the launch of the Defense Fund, and the allocation of €90 million for defense research by 2020 signal Europe’s resolve for independence. Rezvanpour stressed that this trend shifts the balance of power in favor of leading nations like France and Germany. Still, equitable resource distribution, such as the €150 billion loan, could strengthen member cooperation. He warned that this process could deepen internal divisions and weaken transatlantic ties without coordination. Rezvanpour concluded that Europe must move beyond rhetoric and achieve a lasting mindset shift for its defense programs to succeed. If managed carefully, defense autonomy and responsibility could contribute to global stability.