Amin Parto – Middle East Affairs Researcher

It is said that a coalition of Arab gas-producing countries is seeking to build a gas pipeline from the Middle East to Europe. In this regard, the transfer of large gas resources from Qatar and, possibly, in the future, Saudi Arabia to Jordan and Syria and then Turkey is on the table. Turkey intends to become the world’s gas hub. The idea is for Turkey to export Russian gas, which has now lost its export route to Europe through Ukraine, to Europe through its territory. But this is not all about Turkey’s dream of TurkStream. In addition to Russian gas, which is transported to Turkey through Zangezur and the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Turkey is also seeking to export Central Asian gas resources to Europe through its desired pipeline called Trans-Caspian. Of course, Turkey’s plan is that if the US sanctions come into play, it will export Russian gas under the name of its own gas production in the Black Sea and will probably call it a gas swap with Russia. But does Syria really have a role in this big gas game? It seems that there is considerable exaggeration and overestimation in this regard.

It should be noted that firstly, Qatar exports all of its produced gas by converting it into liquefied gas and using a massive fleet of liquefied gas tankers. The destination of the bulk of its gas exports is East Asia and countries such as China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the like. It is clear that Qatar does not yet have plans to build such a huge pipeline because its markets are primarily targeted elsewhere.

Secondly, building such a pipeline requires significant investment, and how it will be financed is unclear. In addition, the return on this investment and the necessity of doing so are still unknown.

Thirdly, the security issue in Syria is still a matter of concern. Although the security situation in Syria has shown considerable relative stability, ISIS is still wreaking havoc in various parts of Syria, and other groups will also have the ability to sabotage gas pipelines.

Fourth, US sanctions against Syria are still in place despite the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s government. Although some of these sanctions have been temporarily eased in humanitarian cases, most of them remain in place in the banking and insurance sectors.

The only justification for building this pipeline may be transporting gas produced in Egypt and the occupied territories to Europe. An overland pipeline from Egypt and the Zionist regime to Syria and Turkey could transport their gas abroad at a lower cost than building an underwater pipeline. Of course, neither Egypt nor the Israeli regime has yet reached the level of gas surplus that would make it profitable to transport it to Europe. Although both are calculating whether exporting liquefied gas or exporting it through a pipeline is more cost-effective.

However, it should not be assumed that a grand economic game is being played in the field of gas transit in Syria. Damascus does not yet have territorial integrity and is far from achieving complete security. In addition, the general direction of the global natural gas market is not in a situation to make Syria an attractive option for gas transit.