Farshad Adel, in an interview with the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations website regarding the U.S.-China tariff cut, said: On May 12, 2025, the U.S. and China mutually reduced tariffs, whereby U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods dropped from 145% to 30%, and China’s tariffs on U.S. goods decreased from 125% to 10%.
Overall, the mutual tariff reduction is a significant move, as it could help reduce inflation and prevent economic recession, particularly benefiting U.S. companies reliant on imports. However, it is essential to note that the damage caused by the U.S.’s unstable and fluctuating trade policies persists, and the uncertainties associated with these policies continue to act as a significant barrier to investment. These policies not only weaken the U.S.’s economic and trade credibility globally but could also lead to reduced employment and production in the U.S. in the long term.

He added: Although this move may temporarily resolve trade issues between the two countries, the Trump administration’s tariff rollback is not permanent, as the two nations have only agreed to a 90-day period, which will not significantly reduce distrust among traders and investors.

The Secretary-General of the Iran-China Strategic Studies Think Tank emphasized: The turbulent outlook in bilateral relations serves as a new challenge in U.S.-China trade ties, and the resulting uncertainties disrupt and destabilize supply chains.

When asked about the impact of the U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement on their international interactions, he replied: In any case, other countries will seek solutions to mitigate the risks and explore new initiatives to shield themselves from tariff war damages. This could lead to independent trade agreements between countries without U.S. involvement.

This trend will undoubtedly accelerate if the U.S. insists on its tariff policies. This situation could be one reason for the U.S. retreat and its agreement with China to reduce tariffs, especially since prolonging this trend could ultimately benefit China.

Adel, referring to Trump’s regional tour visit and the role of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE in persuading Trump to reduce tariffs given their trade agreements with China, stated: The economic shocks from the U.S.-China trade war will profoundly impact global trade. Arab countries will be directly affected, as market shocks have driven oil prices down due to fears of reduced demand. This is critical for Arab nations that base their fiscal policies on oil sales.

The situation becomes riskier for Arab countries if falling oil prices coincide with stock market crashes and slowed economic growth due to the ongoing trade war, with Saudi Arabia facing the most significant damage. In the long term, this will benefit China, as lower energy costs reduce oil import expenses, allowing Chinese goods to gain greater price advantages globally. It will also increase West Asian Arab countries’ reliance on China, enhancing China’s regional influence, ultimately countering U.S. political, security, and economic interests.

He added: Additionally, some U.S. allies, affected by Trump’s tariff policies and aiming to reduce trade surpluses with the U.S., may shift their energy import sources to the U.S., directly impacting Arab oil exports, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The Secretary-General continued: Furthermore, due to disruptions in global supply chains caused by the U.S.-China trade war, China will intensify efforts to access new international markets. Given the pivotal role of Arab ports in the transit of Chinese goods, the U.S. may impose restrictions or sanctions on these countries to curb Arab-China cooperation. Thus, Arab nations, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, recognize these risks and leverage their ties with the Trump administration. They may take practical steps to prevent these dangers or devise future plans to influence this issue.