The military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan which began in the morning of 27 September 2020 is in fact the third in a series of escalation between the two countries after the Bishkek ceasefire agreement. In fact, the two sides went into a long war during 1988 and 1994 which ended in a ceasefire. Again in April 2016 and more recently in July 2020, they fought four days and ended conflict in truce. The present conflict is the third military confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan after the Bishkek Protocol of 1994.

Even though the Karabakh issue began in 1988, the main dispute erupted immediately after the collapse of the former Soviet Union. Armenians constitute the majority of residents in Karabakh which was under the sovereignty of Azerbaijan in that time.However, during 1991-1992, Armenian rebels managed to take control of Karabakh with the support of the Armenian government. After the rebel crisis, the Armenian government occupied about 20 percent of the Azerbaijan soil. Probably Armenians did this in order to stabilize their position or use it as a leverage in negotiations. Since then, relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan remained strained. Azerbaijan has been seeking to regain at least the 20 per cent of its occupied territory; however, it has failed to do so far. Now that clashes have resumed, both Azerbaijan and Armenia are accusing each other of instigating the conflict. However, it appears that the Republic of Azerbaijan is keen on liberalizing the occupied areas as it had promised several years ago. Azerbaijan has begun this effort to indicate that it will free these areas from the Karabakh Armenians. Notwithstanding, Baku has never admitted that Armenians in Karabakh have occupied these areas; It claims Armenia has. But anyway, from the viewpoint of Azerbaijan Republic, there is no difference between these two as it believes the area has been occupied by the Armenians. In such circumstances, Azerbaijan, having received stocks of arms and military equipment and under the pressure exerted on President Elham Aliyev, took action to test the waters to see if it can end the occupation of these areas and bring the attention of public opinion from domestic problems to national issues. Public opinion inside Azerbaijan, who are grappling with domestic problems and economic hurdles of Covid-19, would welcome the liberalization of Karabakh and other areas under occupation by Armenians.

Of course, the crisis between Azerbaijan and Armenia should be also examined from the regional perspectives and in particular, its impact on the security of Iran as the security of South Caucasus influences the security of Iran especially in the north of the country which is heavily impacted by the developments in that region. When the Karabakh Armenians occupied these areas and were advancing towards the Iranian borders, Iran issued a warning to the Armenian side that their advance would create insecurity along our borders. Additionally, as Iran is an immediate neighbour to Armenia and Azerbaijan, it is highly motivated to mediate and end the crisis so as to help establish stability in the region. If the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is expanded, there will be repercussions for the regional countries as Russia, Iran and Turkey. It should be noted that Turkey in this conflict is siding with Azerbaijan and Russia is traditionally supporting Armenia although Kremlin has been calling for the cessation of tension.

Here, even though Iran has always emphasized that there is no military solution for the Karabakh issue, the Minsk Group affiliated with the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) prefers to sustain a no-conflict-no-peace situation.

The Islamic Republic of Iran, classified as a country which could take steps to defuse these tensions, believes that the conflict should end with negotiation and political solution. During the past several years, military solution has proved to be ineffective; however, the Minsk group comprising of Russia, France, the US, Britain and …–originally set up to resolve this issue, has always acted with delay. It seems that this group wants to deliberately prolong the conflict so as to benefit from insecurity in the Caucasus and find an excuse to interfere in the region. And finally, it should be reiterated that the Karabakh crisis has no military solution and so these tensions should be immediately stopped. Moreover, any political solution or negotiation should be channelled through regional frameworks to be effective and productive. The internationalization of this problem would further complicate the conflict under circumstances in which international players are interested in continued crisis and escalation in this region.