Salahuddin Khadiv, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, stated: “Azerbaijan’s only mediation experience, or indeed any role-playing on this scale, was its mediation a few months ago between Turkey and the Israeli regime, which also did not yield a tangible result. Most likely in the recent affair as well, Turkey has asked Azerbaijan to play a role in this matter. The new Damascus government is under the crushing pressure of the Israeli regime and its determination to prevent the expansion of unified sovereignty to all parts of the country.”

According to this international affairs analyst, “Part of the Israeli regime’s strategic consideration in this regard is based on Turkey’s prominent role in post-Assad Syria. The Ahmed Al-Shara government is considered a kind of protectorate of Ankara, and Turkey’s recent efforts to deploy air defense systems and protect Syrian airspace have failed. Therefore, Ankara sees Baku’s close relations with Tel Aviv and Ankara as an opportunity to moderate this regime’s policies and relieve pressure on Al-Shara by reducing tensions between Damascus and the Israeli regime.”

Continuing, Khadiv emphasized regarding Azerbaijan’s motives for entering sensitive regional dossiers: “After its victory in the Karabakh conflict and the political and territorial gains it achieved, Baku has gained increased self-confidence. This transformation coincides, and is essentially simultaneous, with the increasing prominence of Azerbaijan’s role on the world energy map and its emergence as a new gas and oil power.”

This expert says: “In the new regional political and security arrangement, Azerbaijan is apparently supposed to meet Syria’s oil and gas needs. Naturally, this is not possible without the agreement of the Israeli regime and the United States and is part of the strategy of corridors and the interconnection of countries within the framework of new economic and security structures. The Abraham Accords plan, which Trump recently mentioned would include Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries, is also in line with this. However, the existing challenge is the differing security and strategic assessments of the Israeli regime and the US in this area. Tel Aviv wants to use the opportunity gained after the October 7th operation to fundamentally plow its near abroad and destroy all their defensive and deterrent capabilities.”

Security Implications for Neighbors

Khadiv pointed out the consequences of these movements for the security of neighboring countries, stating, “In fact, the foreign policy of the Republic of Azerbaijan has two wings: Turkey and the Israeli regime. Both countries are Iran’s geopolitical rivals in the region, and the latter is also considered Iran’s primary and strategic enemy.”

According to this international affairs analyst, “Any transaction that Baku conducts with the Israeli regime is, for the time being, to Iran’s detriment. The further consolidation of close relations between the two sides also creates an immediate security threat against Iran. Their collaboration in Syria, where an anti-Iranian government is in power, leads to further polarization of the region’s political and security divisions after October 7th. The Israeli regime also tries to continue its aggressive policies with greater ease, using the lever of Iranophobia.”

This expert continues: “Geopolitical greed and the desire to buy influence and strategic depth and even history and the past are part of the habits of rentier governments. Baku’s role-playing also takes place within the framework of a regional division of labor, the agenda of which has been drawn up by the US and its main gendarme in the region, namely the Israeli regime. However, Azerbaijan is a small and somewhat landlocked country and has limited and specific capacities domestically and internationally.”