Seyyed Reza Emadi told the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations that the recent diplomatic crisis between Riyadh and Beirut occurred after the remarks by the Lebanese information minister who supported Ansarallah and described the Saudi war on Yemen as useless.

“The issues that are happening in Lebanon are part of the regional rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran and the axis of resistance. Saudi Arabia seeks to break the balance of power in the region, which has shifted in favor of the Axis of Resistance over the past decade, and to reduce its weight”.

He said: “Saudi Arabia is considering some strategies in this respect. Saudi Arabia spent a lot of money in the 2018 Lebanese elections, which it lost; It then entered the phase of creating unrest and destabilization in the member states of the resistance, including Lebanon and Iraq. For this reason, in 2019, Hariri’s cabinet resigned and Lebanon entered a period that lasted 13 months from the time of Mr. Hassan Diab’s resignation in August 2020, and from Mr. Hariri’s resignation in late October until the formation of Miqati’s cabinet, it took 21 months”.

This university professor said those who put pressure on the axis of resistance are trying to prolong the period of instability, insecurity and popular protests of the member countries of this axis in order to put pressure on the people through their popular media.

“Thus, the pressures currently being exerted in Lebanon on the cabinet of Najib Miqati and Minister of Information George Qardahi go back to the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and its allies over the axis of resistance”.

The policy of putting pressure on Lebanese society to create insecurity and instability

Emadi said that Miqati’s cabinet is not close to resistance, adding that the cabinet was formed because Lebanon is going through a transition period and a new government will be in place by March, when parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place; However, it may continue to work as a “move forward” due to disagreements between the groups. In this situation, the policy of exerting pressure is now pursued with the aim of putting pressure on the Lebanese society.

“The pressures on the Lebanese government now are aimed at creating instability and insecurity in order to put more pressure on the Lebanese society and to shift part of the focus of the resistance in Lebanon to its internal affairs. They are trying to reduce the resistance from the outside, especially in the Syrian issue, and at the same time they are trying to introduce the resistance as the cause of the problems; However, the resistance is trying to alleviate the problems of the people, as we saw in the initiative to solve the fuel problem”.

Referring to the financial difficulty of the people of Lebanon, he said they are trying to keep Hezbollah out of power or, if present, to take ministerial seats that are not in power.

Asked about the approval for holding parliamentary elections in March in Lebanon, he said in view of this, from the point of view of the enemies of the resistance, the pressures within the Lebanese society must continue in order to achieve the goals of the resistance. In fact, introducing resistance as the cause of these conditions reduces the participation of the people in the elections.

“A similar scenario has worked in Iraq. With low popular turnout, the resistance groups have won few votes and those with whom Saudi Arabia and its allies can interact more easily in any case.”

He said such behaviors are for election purposes only, adding that pressures and election approaches are now being formed from outside players in Lebanon.

“Saudi Arabia is under pressure from the war against Yemen and the battlefield is not going in its favor. Not only did it not achieve its goals in this war, but it is also under pressure from the world public opinion due to the biggest humanitarian crisis of the 21st century in Yemen; Therefore, he does not expect the Arab authorities to criticize the Yemeni war and give Ansarollah the right to defend itself”.

Emadi added that since Saudi Arabia looks down on some Arab countries, they should not take a position contrary to Riyadh’s interests; Otherwise, it will act against that country, to remind it that it is still the first power of the Arab countries.

Probability of resignation of the Lebanese minister

Citing the Lebanese information minister who said he will not resign, Emadi said his resignation is conditional on the change in position by the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council members towards Lebanon.

Emadi said given these pressures and the recent positions of the Lebanese government, it is unlikely that Mr. Qardahi will resign, because not only Saudi Arabia, but also neighboring countries, including the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and even Qatar, have put pressure on Lebanon. And in a way, they support Saudi Arabia.

Emadi said these supports are not real, adding that such support should be interpreted more in the context of gaining concessions from Saudi Arabia for the necessary time, but in any case, given these pressures, it is likely that an agreement will be reached in exchange for the return of the ambassadors of the PGCC countries and Mr. Qardahi resigns; But in general, these issues do not make Lebanon return to the path of stability.

“Saudi Arabia’s interests in the current situation revolve around the chaos and insecurity in Lebanon and the fragility of the government there; Because the ultimate goal is not issues like Mr. Qardahi’s resignation and the main goal is to put pressure on the resistance in Lebanon. For this reason, although the nature and type of pressures may change, the principle will continue”.

Referring to the news concerning the agreement of Lebanese president with Miqati about the roadmap of exit from the crisis, Emadi said “even if Lebanon agrees with Saudi Arabia’s proposals in this situation, which is not unlikely, there will still be no ground for stability and development in Lebanon; Because, basically, the Arab countries do not help Lebanon because of the presence of the resistance, and their condition is to weaken the resistance. They just may not move to put more pressure, which is not possible in the short term, and only the nature of the problems changes due to the proximity of the election”.